IEEE Access, vol. 9, pp. 10282-10290, January 2021, DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3050474.

An Assessment of Validity of the Bathtub Model Hazard Rate Trends in Electronics

Aishwarya Gaonkar, Rajkumar B. Patil, San Kyeong, Diganta Das and Michael G. Pecht

CALCE, Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA


The bathtub model has often been cited as a hazard rate profile that predicts not only human mortality but also the hazard rate of manufactured products. This article examines the inapplicability of the bathtub model to predict the hazard rate of electronic components, products, and systems. The article reviews various literature and uses numerous experiments and field failure data to support its argument. The factors affecting the hazard rate of electronics are then discussed, common hazard rate trends for electronics are identified, and recommendations for the assessment of hazard rates are given. This article recommends that a preconceived model of hazard rate over time should not be used.

This article is available online here.

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