Wei Shangguan1,2, Yu Zang1, Huashen Wang1 and Michael G. Pecht3
1 School of Electronics and Information Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China
2 State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety, Beijing, China
3 Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE), University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
In high-speed railways, fixed period and failure-induced maintenance lead to extremely high maintenance. Lacking knowledge about device performance degradation is the main reason for high maintenance costs. Power board is the power source of the high-speed railway devices that provides all the energy required from other circuit boards, which is highly associated with the working state of the entire device. However, there is little research on the prognostics for circuit boards, therefore, this paper developed a novel board-level physics-of-failure model to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of power board. Firstly, the failure modes of the high-speed railway device Balise transmission module (BTM) were analyzed, and board-level physics-of-failure lifetime prediction model for power board was built, then the RULs under the single failure mechanism and multiple failure mechanisms were predicted, finally, the results were verified and validated by Monte Carlo and Simulink respectively. The results show that the multiple failure mechanisms cause more serious degradation, the prediction accuracy of the proposed model can reach 85.48%.