IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics, Vol. 66, Issue: 2, pp. 1585-1597, 2019, DOI: 10.1109/TIE.2018.2808918

Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Useful Life Prediction With Box-Cox Transformation and Monte Carlo Simulation

Yongzhi Zhang 1, Rui Xiong1, Hongwen He1, Michael G. Pecht2
1Department of Vehicles Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
2CALCE, Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA


The current lithium-ion battery remaining useful life (RUL) prediction techniques are mainly developed dependent on offline training data. The loaded current, temperature, and state of charge of lithium-ion batteries used for electric vehicles (EVs) change dramatically under the working conditions. Therefore, it is difficult to design acceleration aging tests of lithium-ion batteries under similar working conditions as those for EVs and to collect effective offline training data. To address this problem, this paper developed an RUL prediction method based on the Box–Cox transformation (BCT) and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. This method can be implemented independent of offline training data. In the method, the BCT was used to transform the available capacity data and to construct a linear model between the transformed capacities and cycles. The constructed linear model using the BCT was extrapolated to predict the battery RUL, and the RUL prediction uncertainties were generated using the MC simulation. Experimental results showed that accurate and precise RULs were predicted with errors and standard deviations within, respectively, [-20, 10] cycles and [1.8, 7] cycles. If some offline training data are available, the method can reduce the required online training data and, thus, the acceleration aging test time of lithium-ion batteries. Experimental results showed that the acceleration time of the tested cells can be reduced by 70%–85% based on the developed method, which saved one to three months’ acceleration test time compared to the particle filter method.

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