Xiaohong Su1, Shuai Wang1, Michael Pecht 2, Lingling Zhao1, and Zhe Ye1
1 School of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China
2 CALCE, Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA
We propose a new data-driven prognostic method based on the interacting multiple model particle filter
(IMMPF) for determining the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries and the probability
distribution function (PDF) of the associated uncertainty. The method applies the IMMPF to different state
equations.Modeling the battery capacity degradation is very important for predicting the RUL of Li-ion batteries.
In this study, improvements are made on various Li-ion battery capacity models (i.e., polynomial, exponential,
and Verhulst models). Further, three different one-step state transition equations are developed, and the
IMMPF method is applied to estimate the RUL of Li-ion batteries with the use of the three improved models.
The PDF of the predicted RUL is obtained by combining the PDFs obtained with each individual model. We
conduct four case studies to validate the proposed method. The results are as follows: (1) the three improved
models require fewer parameters than the original models, (2) the proposed prognostic method shows stable
and high prediction accuracy, and (3) the proposed method narrows the uncertainty PDF of the predicted RUL
of Li-ion batteries.
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