IEEE Transactions on Device and Materials Reliability, Vol. 12, No. 2, June 2012

Lifetime Estimation of High-Power White LED Using Degradation-Data-Driven Method

Jiajie Fan, Kam-Chuen Yung and Michael G. Pecht


High-power white light-emitting diodes (HPWLEDs) have attracted much attention in the lighting market. However, as one of the highly reliable electronic products which may be not likely to fail under the traditional life test or even accelerated life test, HPWLEDs lifetime is difficult to estimate by using traditional reliability assessment techniques. In this paper, the degradation-data-driven method (DDDM), which is based on the general degradation path model, was used to predict the reliability of HPWLED through analysing the lumen maintenance data collected from the IES LM-80-08 lumen maintenance test standard. The final predicted results showed that much more reliability information (e.g., mean time to failure, confidence interval, reliability function, and so on) and more accurate prediction results could be obtained by DDDM including the approximation method, the analytical method, and the two-stage method compared to the IES TM-21-11 lumen lifetime estimation method. Among all these three methods, the two-stage method produced the highest prediction accuracy.

Index Terms: Degradation-data-driven method (DDDM), high-power white light-emitting diode (HPWLED), lifetime estimation, reliability.

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