Electronics Cooling, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 10-16, May 2009

Health Assessment and Prognostics of Electronic Products: An Alternative to Traditional Reliability Prediction Methods

Jie Gu
Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE)
University of Maryland
College Park, MD, 20742

Michael Pecht, Ph.D.
Visiting Professor and Director
International Center of Excellence: Prognostics and Health Management Center
City University of Hong Kong
Director: CALCE Electronic Products and Systems
University of Maryland – USA


Traditional handbook-based reliability prediction methods for electronic products include Mil-Hdbk-217, Telcordia SR-332 (formerly Bellcore), PRISM, FIDES, CNET/RDF (European), and the Chinese GJB-299. These methods rely on analysis of failure data collected from the field and assume that the components of a system have inherent constant failure rates that are derived from the collected data. These methods assume that the constant failure rates can be tailored by independent "modifiers" to account for various quality, operating, and environmental conditions; despite the fact that most of the failure mechanisms are wear-out and thus not constant. Furthermore, none of these handbook prediction methods identify failure modes or mechanisms, nor do they involve any uncertainty analysis. Hence, they offer limited insight into practical reliability issues.

Complete article is available to CALCE Consortium Members.


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