Failure Mechanisms Based Prognostics

Sony Mathew
Diganta Das
Michael Pecht, Fellow, IEEE
Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE)
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742, USA

Roger Rossenberger
Lockheed Martin Co.
Manassas, VA 20742, USA

Prognostics methods are being developed to evaluate the reliability of a system in its actual life-cycle conditions, to estimate the times to failure and to mitigate system risks. A key requirement in any prognostics method is identification of the appropriate parameter(s), which, can be used to asses impending failure, if monitored. This paper presents a physics-of-failure based methodology, which uses failure modes, mechanisms and effects analysis (FMMEA) to enhance prognostics planning and implementation. Also presented are two ways of implementing the FMMEA based methodology.

Index Terms: Failure mechanisms, legacy systems, precursors, remaining life, prognostics

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