Kokomo, IN 46904
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742
This paper presents a warranty
forecasting method based on stochastic simulation of expected product warranty
returns. This methodology is presented in the context of a high-volume product
industry and has a specific application to automotive electronics. The warranty
prediction model is based on a piecewise application of Weibull and exponential
distributions, having three parameters, which are the characteristic life and
shape parameter of the Weibull distribution and the time coordinate of the
junction point of the two distributions. This time coordinate is the point at
which the reliability 'athtub' curve exhibits a transition between early-life
and constant hazard rate behavior. The values of the parameters are obtained
from the optimum fitting of data on past warranty claims for similar products.
Based on the analysis of past warranty returns it is established that even
though the warranty distribution parameters vary visibly between product lines
they stay approximately consistent within the same product family, which
increases the overall accuracy of the simulation-based warranty forecasting
technique. The method is demonstrated using a case study of automotive
electronics warranty returns.
The approach developed and demonstrated in this
paper represents a balance between correctly modeling the failure rate trend
changes and practicality for use by reliability analysis organizations.
article is available to CALCE Consortium Members.
Complete article is available to CALCE Consortium Members.