Proceedings of the International Society of Logistics (SOLE) International Conference and Exhibition, Norfolk, VA, Sept 2004

Forecasting Technology Insertion Concurrent with Design Refresh Planning for COTS-Based Electronic Systems

 Peter Sandborn and Pameet Singh
Department of Mechanical Engineering
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742



This paper describes a methodology for forecasting technology insertion concurrent with obsolescence driven design refresh planning. The optimized parameter is the life cycle cost of the system. The resulting analysis provides a design refresh schedule for the system (i.e., when to design refresh) and predicts the design refresh content for each of the scheduled design refreshes. Optimal design refresh content is determined using a hybrid analysis scheme that utilizes Monte Carlo methods to account for uncertainties (in dates) and Bayesian Belief Networks to enable critical decision making after candidate refresh dates are selected.


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