Forecasting Technology Insertion Concurrent with Design Refresh Planning for COTS-Based Electronic Systems
Peter Sandborn and
Pameet Singh
CALCE EPSC
Department of Mechanical Engineering
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742
Abstract:
This paper
describes a methodology for forecasting technology insertion concurrent with
obsolescence driven design refresh planning. The optimized parameter is the life
cycle cost of the system. The resulting analysis provides a design refresh
schedule for the system (i.e., when to design refresh) and predicts the design
refresh content for each of the scheduled design refreshes. Optimal design
refresh content is determined using a hybrid analysis scheme that utilizes Monte
Carlo methods to account for uncertainties (in dates) and Bayesian Belief
Networks to enable critical decision making after candidate refresh dates are
selected.
Complete
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