Predicting the Reliability of Electronic Equipment
M. Pecht and F. Nash
The use of reliability predictions in the design and operation of electronic
equipment has been an evolutionary and very controversial process, and
over the past decade, reliability prediction methods have been a focal
point for a flurry of books, papers, editorials, opinions, special sessions,
and workshops. While it is generally believed that reliability assessment
methods should be used to aid in product design and development, the integrity
and auditability of the reliability prediction methods have been found
to be questionable; in that, the models do not predict field failures,
cannot be used for comparative purposes, and present misleading trends
and relations. This paper discusses the role of reliability prediction
and assessment in design, development, and deployment of electronic equipment;
overviews the history of reliability predictions for electronics; discusses
the advantages and disadvantages of some current methods; and presents
some of the key research questions which need to be addressed.
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